Geopolitics of Pandemics: China's Role in the International System after Covid-19 Pandemic

Abstract

International Relations Theory plays a crucial role in tracking and interpreting events and interactions within the global system, aiming to explain and predict their impact on shaping international structures and dynamics. Among these theories, realism stands out as one of the most significant, asserting that major international events—whether they unfold gradually or emerge suddenly—inevitably trigger geopolitical shifts, affecting the units and actors that constitute the international order.

The COVID-19 pandemic, which struck at the close of the second decade of the 21st century, exemplifies such an event, creating significant tremors within the current international system. The pandemic's effects could lead to a reevaluation of the foundational rules and standards that govern the global order. It presents both a threat and an opportunity for states, particularly for rising powers like China, which seeks to enhance its global standing, in contrast to established powers such as the United States, which is focused on maintaining its leadership role.

Historically, pandemics have served as significant geopolitical variables, influencing changes in international systems by providing certain actors with opportunities to shift power dynamics. The COVID-19 pandemic is no exception. While it may not immediately redistribute global power, it could amplify long-term changes and activate existing forces that drive the transformation of the international system. This pandemic offers China, as a rising global power, the chance to assert its influence and advocate for a more prominent role in reshaping global governance in line with its strategic objectives, marking a potential shift in how power is distributed within the international system.