The Future of NATO in Light of American Unilateralism: A Foresight Study of Possible Future Scenarios

Abstract

This study addresses a central problem: the rise of unilateralism in American foreign policy has become an influential independent variable shaping the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the oldest and most institutionalized military alliance in the international system. Employing a foresight approach and the scenario-building method, the study projects the Alliance's trajectory over the period 2026–2035 through three possible scenarios: the retrenchment and diminishing role of the Alliance; the renewal of Atlantic cohesion; and functional adaptation through the construction of a new security architecture. Each scenario is examined through a unified analytical framework covering its structural foundations, the impact of American unilateralism, its constraints, expected outcomes, and an assessment of its probability in light of four governing variables: the level of American commitment, the degree of convergence in threat perception, the level of autonomous European defence capabilities, and the intensity of external threat. The study concludes that functional adaptation is the most probable scenario, since American unilateralism operates more as a catalyst for redistributing burdens within the Alliance than as a factor of disintegration. Retrenchment remains a medium probability conditional upon the collapse of the credibility of the American guarantee, while full cohesion remains the least likely, as it depends on domestic American political conditions that cannot be assumed.