"The U.S. Political Options Towards Violent Actors after Operation Al-Aqsa Flood: Between Restraint and Escalation - Iraq and Syria as Examples

Abstract

When examining the options of US policy towards enemies and adversaries, we find them varying with each stage according to strategic priorities. These policies range from escalation in confronting threats and challenges, whether security, economic, or health-related, to retrenchment amidst tactical differences regarding global threat hotspots.

Among these challenges that have entered the strategic danger zone for US interests and spheres of influence are non-state violent actors, particularly those with transnational tendencies, with the Middle East being one of the most volatile regions. Among these regions are Iraq and Syria, which have produced non-state actors with regional sponsorship amidst the region's dynamics, starting from the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the ensuing chaos that led to divisions and instability affecting the region's states.

The Arab Spring revolutions were one of the repercussions and ramifications witnessed by the region, particularly Syria, which generated multi-party and multi-directional actors, including global transboundary entities like Al-Qaeda and ISIS, regional ones like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iraqi factions, and local ones like the Houthis in Yemen.

Therefore, US policy towards actors in Iraq and Syria is divided based on the type of actor and its impact, ranging between red, orange, and green zones representing danger, threat, and challenge. The events of October 7, 2023, in Gaza and its aftermath played a significant role in Syria and Iraq, more than states, in supporting the Palestinian cause, albeit controlled by a regional force represented by Iran.