Determinants of Russian policy in the Eastern Mediterranean region after 2011

Abstract

The Eastern Mediterranean region has witnessed numerous strategic shifts that have significantly impacted Russian policy and contributed to the decline of Moscow’s influence. Russia failed to exert effective influence over Middle Eastern crises or steer events in its favor, particularly amid the rising U.S. role and conflicting interests between the two powers. American strategy has worked to curtail Russian influence and terminate its role in several regional files. The events of September 2024 marked a pivotal turning point, effectively ending Russia’s control over Syria and returning the region to the Western sphere of influence—particularly that of NATO—leading to its figurative description as a “stagnant NATO lake.” Additionally, European energy companies have expanded their influence through future-oriented projects and regional alliances aimed at countering Russian firms, thereby reducing their presence. The reputation of Russian weaponry suffered due to underwhelming battlefield performance, undermining Moscow’s military and political standing. Moreover, Russia’s regional policy was shaped by Israeli and Turkish positions; Turkey leveraged Islamist groups as tools to counter Russian influence in Libya and maintained support for Islamist factions in Syria—most notably Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham—since 2011. These dynamics culminated in the September 2024 events, which marked the definitive end of Russia’s presence in the region.